Comparative analysis of hatchability dynamics (CAHD) of eggs in selected hatcheries in Ibadan metropolis

Résumé

We carried out this study to evaluate the plausibility of the representativeness of time series analysis results using egg hatchability data from 2 selected hatcheries: Bronco and Foresight hatcheries, Oluyole, Ibadan (both at Latitude 7º 23´ N and Longitude 3º 82´ E). The initial summary statistics of egg variables showed that in Bronco hatchery, the quantity of eggs set peaked (14935.53) in the months of November but lowest (11298.91) in the months of March. However, variance of eggs set in the months of September was highest (41018287) but lowest (1613430) in the months of March. The quantity of fertile eggs ranged between 10216.96 (March) and 13527.58 (November). Total number of chicks produced was highest (11966.15) in the months of November and lowest (9265.86) in the months of March. The time plot of egg set for hatching returned an unconditional cyclic variance and similarly with egg transferred. Although, total eggs hatched into chicks had different time plot pattern but it was also an unconditional cyclic variation. The Jarque-Bera (JB) statistics returned for egg set, egg transferred, total chicks hatched and ratio for Bronco hatchery are 1654.92, 1011.46, 38.721 and 57.855, respectively, while that of foresight hatchery are 25.038, 27.006, 235.897 and 365.734, respectively. The acf(x …x ) of the egg variable presented a wider value than that of acf of (x …x ) for foresight hatchery hence, the acf (x …x ) =(x …x ) could not be said to be strictly stationary. However, the acf of the x …x presented a cyclical and reducing acf like the original acf hence, (x …x ) =(x …x ). The acf of the ratio of egg set to total chicks hatched gave cyclical but reducing trend for both Bronco and Foresight hatcheries. These trends were also maintained for the x …x hence xtk+h …x = x …x . TheARIMAmodel of the ratio of the egg hatchability variables has the least corrected akaike information criteria nd Bayesian Information Criteria hence it could be adjudged the most parsimonious.